Premier League: Weekend Preview using xG

xG Forecasts, Match Insights & Betting Angles

Using live per-match xG and xGA data, our custom model generates expected goals for each fixture and runs Poisson simulations to estimate match probabilities. Below is a match-by-match preview for the upcoming Premier League weekend.

Match Previews & xG Forecasts

Burnley vs Chelsea

xG Forecast:

• Burnley: 1.12

• Chelsea: 1.86

• Result probabilities:

  • Home win: 22.8%

  • Draw: 22.7%

  • Away win: 54.2%

Insight:Chelsea’s underlying numbers (1.72 xG for, 1.10 xGA) point to a side creating strong chances while still giving opponents opportunities. Burnley’s defence is leaking nearly 2.0 xGA per match — one of the league’s highest — and the model reflects that. Chelsea have a clear edge in attacking output.

Betting angle:

• Chelsea to win

• Chelsea over 1.5 team goals

• Chelsea most shots on target (data-driven)

AFC Bournemouth vs West Ham United

xG Forecast:

• Bournemouth: 1.69

• West Ham: 1.12

• Result probabilities:

  • Home win: 50.5%

  • Draw: 24.1%

  • Away win: 25.2%

Insight:Bournemouth’s attacking metrics have quietly improved: 1.43 xG for per match, and they limit opponents well at home. West Ham are efficient (1.26 xG for), but conceding 1.69 xGA. The model gives Bournemouth a surprisingly strong advantage.

Betting angle:

• Bournemouth Draw No Bet

• Bournemouth over 1.5 goals

• BTTS (leaning yes)

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford

xG Forecast:

• Brighton: 1.52

• Brentford: 1.28

• Result probabilities:

  • Home win: 42.8%

  • Draw: 25.1%

  • Away win: 31.9%

Insight:Brighton remain one of the league’s most stable xG teams (1.43 xG for, 1.26 xGA). Brentford’s metrics show similar patterns but slightly worse defensively. The model sits very evenly, with Brighton a marginal favourite due to home advantage.

Betting angle:

• Over 2.5 goals (both teams attack well, concede regularly)

• Brighton or Draw double chance

Fulham vs Sunderland

xG Forecast:

• Fulham: 1.54

• Sunderland: 1.26

• Result probabilities:

  • Home win: 43.8%

  • Draw: 25.0%

  • Away win: 31.0%

Insight:Fulham’s underlying numbers (1.27 xG, 1.39 xGA) are mid-table steady, while newly promoted Sunderland sit at a respectable 1.12 xG and 1.58 xGA — a team that competes but leaks chances. The model shows a moderate Fulham edge but expects a tight match.

Betting angle:

• BTTS

• Over 2.5 goals

• Fulham Draw No Bet

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

xG Forecast:

• Liverpool: 1.70

• Forest: 1.37

• Result probabilities:

  • Home win: 45.0%

  • Draw: 23.7%

  • Away win: 31.0%

Insight:Liverpool create high-quality chances (1.63 xG) but are giving up more defensively this season (1.30 xGA), making them less dominant than previous years. Forest, meanwhile, are quietly strong in attack (1.44 xG for). The model still leans Liverpool but more balanced than the market likely will.

Betting angle:

• BTTS

• Liverpool over 1.5 goals

• Over 2.5 total goals

Summary Table (Forecasted xG)

Match	Home xG	Away xG
Burnley vs Chelsea	1.12	1.86
Bournemouth vs West Ham	1.69	1.12
Brighton vs Brentford	1.52	1.28
Fulham vs Sunderland	1.54	1.26
Liverpool vs Forest	1.70	1.37

Final Thoughts

The clearest edges from the model:

Strongest value:

• Chelsea to win

• Bournemouth draw no bet

• Liverpool vs Forest – BTTS

Most balanced games:

• Brighton vs Brentford

• Fulham vs Sunderland